- Aug 26

2024: Gen Z Voters To Be The Deciding Factor In The Election

Every presidential election cycle is decided with a telling story. These stories come to light with data, after the votes are cast. In recent years, this has included:

The sense of neglect felt by rural Americans in 2016
The desire for normalcy and decency expressed by suburban voters in 2020

One of the big stories expected to emerge this election cycle is the increase in voter turnout among young people (ages 18 to 29). This generation is highly engaged in civic issues, and as the most digitally savvy, they’ll be easier to reach through online voter registration campaigns, which will be available in 42 states (plus DC) this election cycle. It's expected that young people will utilize online registration sites more than any other age group.

Source: Balletepedia

The 2024 Election: Expected Turnout

The 2024 presidential cycle is expected to see record-breaking turnout, surpassing the 154.6 million votes cast in the 2020 presidential election.

This increase will be driven by the population growing from 231.6 million in 2020 to 242.3 Million in 2024, and a higher percentage of the voting-eligible population participating. In 2020, the Voting Eligible Population (VEP) turnout rate was 66.8%. Notably, the 2020 election had the highest VEP (Voting Eligible Population) rate since 1900.

Source: Election Project

If voter turnout in 2024 remains close to the 66.8% seen in 2020, population growth would push the number of voters from 154.6 million in 2020 to an estimated 161.8 million in 2024.

While the high level of interest in the 2024 election suggests that turnout rates could surpass 2020 levels, the increase in total votes is expected to be driven more by population growth than by a significant rise in turnout rates.

Gen Z Expected to Increase Its Share of the 2024 Electorate: Key Implications for the Election

In the 2020 election, there were around 47.0 million eligible voters aged 18 to 29.

In 2020, 62% of 18 to 29 year-olds registered, netting to a total of 29.4 million registered voters
In 2020, 54% of 18 to 29 year-olds voted, netting to a total of 25.5 million voters

The number of eligible voters in the 18 to 29 year old age group will grow from 47 million in 2020 to 49 million in 2024, a 4.2% increase. The turnout rates of the 18 to 29 year-old age group which were the lowest of any age group in the 2020 election will notably improve in 2024.

The increase in 18 to 29 year-old's turnout will be driven by:

17 million 18 to 21 year-olds who will be eligible to vote in their first presidential election
12 million 22 to 24 year-olds who will be eligible to vote in their first non-pandemic election
Overall interest in the election among the entire 18 to 29 year-old age group

Source: Tufts University - Circle

In 2020, the 25.5 million voters aged 18 to 29 made up 16.5% of the electorate. With an estimated total turnout of 161.8 million voters in 2024, here are the potential impacts of increased turnout among younger voters on their share of the electorate.

Scenario 1: If the turnout rate of the 18 to 29 age group increases from 54% to 60%, this will increase 18 to 29 year-old's turnout to 29.6 million voters and the age group's share of the electorate to 18.3%
Scenario 2: If the turnout rate of the 18 - 29 age group increases from 54% to 67% (total turnout rate of VEP in 2020), this will increase 18 to 29 year-old's turnout to 32.7 million voters and the age group's share of the electorate to 20.2%
Scenario 3: In a far more aggressive scenario, if the turnout rate of the 18 - 29 age group increases from 54% to 70%, this will increase 18 to 29 year-old's turnout to 34.3 million voters and the age group's share of the electorate to 21.2%

With 18 to 29 year-olds expected to increase their turnout, their share of the overall electorate will likely rise by 1.8 percentage points (scenario 1 above) to 3.7 percentage points (scenario 2). This increase in young voters' share of the total vote is likely to be a decisive factor in the 2024 election.