Google Cloud: How Much Will Google's Cloud Business Be Worth in 2030?

With all the focus on AI, and its impact on Google's core search business, it is easy to overlook how big the non-search parts of Google have become, especially Google Cloud which is on track to grow over the next couple of years into a massive business that will be valued in excess of $1 Trillion.

Google Cloud Is On The Way To Becoming A Trillion Dollar Business

While Google Cloud trails Amazon's AWS and Microsoft's Azure cloud business in both market-share and profitability, it's now in aggressive catch-up mode, gaining market-share and growing profits across the cloud computing sector. A sector that is driving the advancements in AI, and becoming the foundation for the data economy.

Google Cloud is set to surpass $50 Billion in revenue for the first time in 2025. A milestone that AWS first reached in 2021. The Google Cloud segment includes multiple product lines, most notably Google Cloud Platform (GCP), which is Google's suite of cloud services that supports businesses as they build, deploy, and scale applications - including AI tools and infrastructure.

It's estimated that Google Cloud Platform which is a direct competitor to AWS and Microsoft's Azure, accounts for around 80% of the Google Cloud segment's revenue. After years of losses, Google Cloud turned an operating profit for the first time in 2023, with margins expanding, since then, from 5% in 2023 to an expected 18% in 2025. While this marks a significant improvement, it still trails the 30%+ margins AWS and Azure have achieved.

"Google Cloud includes infrastructure and platform services, applications, and other services for enterprise customers. Google Cloud generates revenues primarily from consumption-based fees and subscriptions received for Google Cloud Platform services, Google Workspace communication and collaboration tools, and other enterprise services."

Google Cloud's 2030 Valuation Scenarios

With Google Cloud's revenue expected to grow 25 - 30% annually between 2025 and 2030, and operating margins expected to stabilize in the 25% to 35% range, the cloud business could generate between $171 Billion and $208 billion in annual revenue by 2030. This translates to operating profits ranging from $43 Billion to $72 Billion, depending on the levels that profit margins settle in at ( described in scenarios below).

In scenarios 1 - 3, Google Cloud revenues grow 25% annually between 2025 and 2030, while operating margins increase from the current level of approximately 18%, and stabilize at 25 - 35%.

Scenario 1: Revenues Grow 25% annually, Margins Stabilize at 25%, Google Cloud is valued at 25 Times Operating Profits

• Revenues increase from $56 Billion in 2025 to $171 Billion in 2030

• Google Cloud operating profits increase from $10 Billion in 2025 to $43 Billion in 2030

• Applying a 25X multiple to operating profits, results in a valuation of $1.0 Trillion for Google's Cloud business.

Scenario 2: Revenues Grow 25% annually, Margins Stabilize at 30%, Google Cloud is valued at 25 Times Operating Profits

• Revenues increase from $56 Billion in 2025 to $171 Billion in 2030

• Google Cloud operating profits increase from $10 Billion in 2025 to $52 Billion in 2030

• Applying a 25X multiple to operating profits, results in a valuation of $1.3 Trillion for Google's Cloud business.

Scenario 3: Revenues Grow 25% annually, Margins Stabilize at 35%, Google Cloud is valued at 25 Times Operating Profits

• Revenues increase from $56 Billion in 2025 to $171 Billion in 2030

• Google Cloud operating profits increase from $37 Billion in 2024 to $60 Billion in 2030

• Applying a 25X multiple to operating profits, results in a valuation of $1.5 Trillion for Google's Cloud business.

In scenarios 4 - 6, Google Cloud revenues grow 30% annually between 2025 and 2030, while operating margins increase from the current level of approximately 18%, and stabilize at 25 - 35%.

Scenario 4: Revenues Grow 30% annually, Margins Stabilize at 25%, Google Cloud is valued at 25 Times Operating Profits

• Revenues increase from $56 Billion in 2025 to $208 Billion in 2030

• Google Cloud operating profits increase from $37 Billion in 2024 to $52 Billion in 2030

• Applying a 25X multiple to operating profits, results in a valuation of $1.3 Trillion for Google's Cloud business.

Scenario 5: Revenues Grow 30% annually, Margins Stabilize at 30%, Google Cloud is valued at 25 Times Operating Profits

• Revenues increase from $56 Billion in 2025 to $208 Billion in 2030

• Google Cloud operating profits increase from $37 Billion in 2024 to $62 Billion in 2030

• Applying a 25X multiple to operating profits, results in a valuation of $1.6 Trillion for Google's Cloud business.

Scenario 6: Revenues Grow 15% annually, Margins Stabilize at 35%, AWS is valued at 40 Times Operating Profits

• Revenues increase from $56 Billion in 2025 to $208 Billion in 2030

• Google Cloud operating profits increase from $37 Billion in 2024 to $73 Billion in 2030

• Applying a 25X multiple to operating profits, results in a valuation of $1.8 Trillion for Google's Cloud business.

What Is The Most Likely Scenario for Google Cloud's Valuation in 2030?

The most likely scenario is that Google Cloud grows revenues at 25% per year, as it continues gaining market share in the Global Cloud Computing market, and achieves 30% proft margins as the Google Cloud Platform surpasses a $100 Billion run rate.

Source: Market.US

Though Google Cloud remains a distant third to AWS and Microsoft Azure, it's likely to gain market-share from a combination of the two leaders and from smaller cloud computing providers.

Source: Visual Capitalist

In 2030 Google Cloud Services Will Likely Be Worth $1.3 Trillion

Google's current market capitalization is approximately $2.1 Trillion. As of 2024, Google Services, which includes advertising across Google owned properties (including search, YouTube, maps, and other google apps), and as well as third party sites and premium subscription services accounts for 86% of Google's total revenues. While Google's Cloud business represents only 12% of Google's total revenue.

Focusing on operating profits, Google Services generated $121 Billion in operating profits compared to Google Cloud which generated $6 Billion in 2024 - showing the current profitability gap between the two segments.

The Importance of Enterprise Cloud

As Enterprise adoption grows, Google Cloud's emphasis on proprietary AI is expected to establish differentiation, and to contribute more meaningfully to Google overall valuation.

While much attention is focused on the potential impact of AI on Google's search revenues, long term technology trends are notoriously difficult to predict (very few in 2019 anticipated the scale of AI's impact in 2025). That said, "Google Services" revenues are likely more diversified than many realize.

In summary, investors are overestimating the decline of the Google Services business and underestimating the potential of Google's Cloud business, which with its enterprise focused solutions could generate $52+ Billion in operating profits by 2030, close to it's 2025 revenue run rate.

A $1.3 trillion valuation for Google Cloud in 2030 would represent 60% of Google's current total valuation of $2.1 trillion.