How Large Will Visa's Cross-Border Business Be in 2030?

Visa's global payments network has become one of the most important businesses in the world, facilitating cross-border transactions and cementing Visa as the largest processor of multi-currency transactions.

The Business of Simplifying Multi-Currency Transactions

Visa's cross-border transactions volume is expected to surpass $3 trillion by 2030, up from an estimated $2 trillion in 2026. To put this in perspective, $2 Trillion in transactions is similar to the GDP of Brazil, the 10th largest economy in the world.

The growth is supported by globalization trends, with the rebound in international travel and commerce accelerating the long-term interconnectedness of the global economy, after years of pandemic-induced disruption.

From the perspective of the global economy, Visa (along with other leading payment networks) makes it so much easier for transactions to scale borders. This includes tourists spending money in foreign countries, online services in which the buyers/sellers use different currencies, B2B procurement and business travel.

Cross-Border Payments Were Decimated During The Pandemic

Consistent with the standard disclosures that public companies share, Visa's financial statements present risk disclosures that seem outside the bound of what's possible. In the case of Visa's cross-border transaction business, the 2019 10K, which was the last one published prior to the pandemic, provides the following disclaimer. More than half of Visa’s net revenues are earned outside the U.S., with international cross-border transaction revenues representing a significant portion of both current income and long-term growth strategy. However, these revenues are highly sensitive to adverse macroeconomic conditions such as recessions, inflation, high unemployment, currency fluctuations, large-scale defaults, or slowdowns in global trade, all of which can weaken consumer, government, and corporate confidence and spending. Additional risks include outbreaks of illness or pandemics, political uncertainties, armed conflicts, natural disasters, and other disruptions that could impact Visa’s operations, clients, and cross-border travel and spend.

Of course, in 2019, few anticipated a global pandemic beginning just months later. Yet the risk of a pandemic was listing among the company's risks, and an event that hadn't occurred in a hundred years materialized, leading to a 50% decrease in cross-border transactions, as shown in the chart below.

Chart from Pandemic: A Rare Decline In Cross-Border Payment Volume

Profitability of The Cross-Border, Multi-Currency Business

While Visa is already one of the impressive companies in the world, it will become even more so, through the next decade and a half. Cross-border / multi-currency transactions are expected to grow from approximately 35% of revenues in 2025, to nearly 40% of revenues in 2030.

Because cross-border transactions carry operating margins likely upwards of 80%, significantly higher than Visa's already world-class overall operating margin of 67%, their impact on the company's total profit is even greater. The operating income from cross-border transactions is likely to rise to nearly 50% of Visa's operating income in 2030.

Leading The Way With Multi-Currency Payments

As Visa continues to facilitate and provide the benefit of convenience for multi-currency payments, the valuation of Visa's Cross-Border business will be approximately $600 Billion, applying a 30 multiple to the $20 Billion in expected 2030 operating income.

Additionally, as the leading processor of cross-border payments, Visa is assembling one of the most remarkable economic data assets in the world. A unique dataset that provides robust, real-time insights into the pulse of the global economy, with payment data indicating the conditions of different economies and quantifying the unique purchase trends across countries and regions.