The surge in popularity of electric vehicles is surpassing even the most optimistic predictions, a phenomenon seldom seen in the realm of technological forecasting.
Rising EV Forecasts
According to the chart provided by The Rocky Mountain Institute, Bloomberg NEF has consistently increased its projections for the proportion of electric vehicles (EVs) in new car sales by 2030. Initially, in 2017, they predicted that 25% of global new car sales would be EVs by 2030. However, through subsequent adjustments, their current forecasts anticipate that 45% of new car sales worldwide will be EVs by the same year. [Link]
The Leading EV Markets Across Globe
This chart illustrates the countries and regions at the forefront of the shift from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles to Electric Vehicles (EVs). China and Europe stand out, with a greater proportion of new passenger cars sold being EVs compared to other parts of the world. (along with California - see below)
A Record Month Of EV Sales In China (August 2023)
In fact, China established a new record in August, with EVs reaching 36.9% of new car sales.
Rest of World Will Look Like California and China's EV Markets in A Few Years
To see what the rest of the car market will look like in a few years, you really need to understand two markets in the world, China and California. That's because EVs are so much popular in China and California compared to other large markets across the world.
In the second quarter of 2023, 22% of the new cars purchased in California were EVs.
Tesla Has Become The Top Selling Car Brand In California
EVs are so popular in the Golden State that Tesla has became the top selling car brand in California.
Get Used To These Type of Headlines
Expect to see more headlines like this, as EVs become cheaper and EV sales momentum builds across the world.
"A rapid shift in purchasing decisions is likely to occur once EVs become cheaper to buy than fossil-fuelled vehicles, according to a third, new body of research by Exeter University’s Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) project. This purchase price-parity “tipping point” is expected as early as 2024 in Europe, 2025 in China, 2026 in the US and 2027 in India for medium-sized cars, and even sooner for smaller vehicles. In China, lifetime costs of small EVs are already cheaper than their fossil-fueled equivalents. When both the costs of operation and purchase are accounted for, EVs are already cheaper to own than petrol or diesel cars in the EU and China, and the US will achieve the same within the next one or two years."