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The Hockey Stick Growth of Electric Vehicles

Updated: Nov 24

The popularity of electric vehicles is outpacing even the most rosy forecasts, which is very rare in the world of technology prognostication.

Rising EV ForecastS

As this chart from The Rocky Mountain Institute shows, Bloomberg NEF has steadily raised its forecasts for the percentage of new car sales that will be EVs in 2030. In 2017, they were forecasting for 25% of the new cars sold accross the world to be EVs by 2030. After several upward adjustments, their forecasts now call for 45% of the new cars sold across the globe to be EVs by 2030. [Link]

The Leading EV Markets Across Globe

While this chart shows the countries/regions leading the transition from ICE Vehicles to Electric Vehicles. A larger share of new passenger cars sold are EVs in China and Europe compared to the rest of the world. (along with California - see below)

A Record Month For EV Sales In China (August 2023)

In fact, China established a new record in August, with EVs reaching 36.9% of new car sales.

The Rest of World Will Look Like California and China's EV Markets in A Few Years

To see what the rest of the car market will look like in a few years, you really need to understand two markets in the world, China and California. That's because EVs are so much popular in China and California compared to other large markets across the world.

In the second quarter of 2023, 22% of the new cars purchased in California were EVs.

Tesla Has Become The Top Selling Car Brand In California

EVs are so popular in the Golden State that Tesla has became the top selling car brand in California.

Get Used To These Type of Headlines

Expect to see more headlines like this, as EVs become cheaper and EV sales momentum builds across the world.

"A rapid shift in purchasing decisions is likely to occur once EVs become cheaper to buy than fossil-fuelled vehicles, according to a third, new body of research by Exeter University’s Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) project. This purchase price-parity “tipping point” is expected as early as 2024 in Europe, 2025 in China, 2026 in the US and 2027 in India for medium-sized cars, and even sooner for smaller vehicles. In China, lifetime costs of small EVs are already cheaper than their fossil-fueled equivalents. When both the costs of operation and purchase are accounted for, EVs are already cheaper to own than petrol or diesel cars in the EU and China, and the US will achieve the same within the next one or two years."

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